Vitug’s Book Details Recent History of Philippine Policy Engagement with China

Author Marites D. Vitug, Georgetown University, Washington, DC. 28 February 2025

WASHINGTON, D.C.- At a February 28 forum held at the Georgetown University Mortara Center, Philippine political analyst Marites Dañguilan Vitug discussed the highlights of her latest book, “Unrequited Love: Duterte’s China Embrace” with focus on foreign policy, a topic of increasing importance among voters leading to the Philippines May 2025 mid-term elections. The newly released book provides a well-documented historical account of the Philippine government’s engagement with China and behind the scenes high-level interactions focusing on former President Rodrigo Duterte’s mindset and foreign policy shift during his six-year term. A backdrop to the Philippines historic 2016 legal success against China’s overarching claims in the South China under the late President Benigno Aquino Jr. is Vitug’s 2018 award-winning book “Rock Solid: How the Philippines Won Its Maritime Case against China.”

Ms. Vitug explains the factors behind President Duterte’s tilt towards China in 2016. During his first state visit to Beijing, President Duterte announced a “separation from the United States, both the military and (in) economics.” In February 2020, he temporarily suspended the PH-US Visiting Forces Agreement.

In Ms. Vitug’s view, President Duterte’s foreign policy strategy toward Xi Jinping emboldened pro-Chinese political factions in the Philippines. The policy shift failed to yield benefits for Philippine infrastructure development, with China falling well short of its $24 billion investment pledge, which included an ambitious mega railway project in Mindanao that was cancelled. Furthermore plans for joint PH-CH oil and gas exploration in the South China Sea was abandoned. In contrast, Ms. Vitug cited Chinese inroads during President Gloria Arroyo’s presidency (2001-2010) that resulted in the first Philippine privatized national grid project with China’s participation.

In Ms. Vitug’s opinion, when the U.S. delivered crucial Covid-19 vaccines in July 2021, President Duterte softened his stance toward the U.S., resulting in restoration of the Visiting Forces Agreement.

Escalating China flash points erupted in PH-CH encounters during resupply missions and patrols in the vicinity of disputed features in the South China Sea and within the exclusive economic zone of the Philippines. The Second Thomas Shoal where the vintage WWII-era BRP Sierra Madre is grounded, remains vulnerable. And, Sabina Shoal has emerged as a new hot spot due to its strategic location.

Elected in 2022, President Marcos addressed China’s aggressive behavior and dangerous maneuvers with restraint, diplomacy and transparency. Ms. Vitug pointed out that President Marcos’ pro-Western strategic realignment was influenced by domestic, regional and global factors. President Marcos oversaw the largest PH-US Balikatan Joint Exercise. He also understood that the U.S. enjoyed a favorable standing and trust among Filipinos. A June 2024 poll survey revealed that 76 percent of Filipinos agree with the Marcos administration’s assertion of the nation’s sovereign rights; 74% wanted the government to work with the United States; 51 percent believed in strengthening alliances and conduct of joint patrols; and only 5% trusted China. In standing up to China through “measured transparency” in the South China Sea and appeals to follow the rule of law, the Marcos administration has galvanized support both domestically and internationally, while Beijing has incurred reputational costs.

Speaking to a Washington audience representing the academe, foreign affairs practitioners, policy makers and US-Philippines Society members, Ms. Vitug concluded her report with questions on the outlook of Philippines-U.S. relations under a new U.S. administration. The discussion spanned across domestic and regional concerns including the impact of Chinese spy agents, the rise of espionage, impediments to US-PH relations due to human rights policy, the 2028 presidential candidates, the rise of a new political dynasty of modern-day internet vigilantes, a Supreme Court decision against red tagging journalists, and the ASEAN role in deescalating tensions in the South China Sea.

In closing remarks, President Emeritus Amb John F. Maisto pulled together the various threads of Ms. Vitug’s presentation and, as a veteran Philippine policy hand, offered his perspective on the importance of maintaining smart bilateral diplomatic engagement in the period ahead, with a new administration in Washington and upcoming mid-term elections in the Philippines.

The book event was co-sponsored with Georgetown University Walsh School of Foreign Service.